President Biden is set to meet with the National Security Council on Sunday to discuss the threat of war in Ukraine, as officials warn that Moscow is stepping up its disinformation campaign in a bid to create a pretext for a military attack that the president has warned could come “in the coming days.”
Belarus’s defense minister extended military exercises with Russian forces that were otherwise set to end Sunday, and announced a joint task force to “fight back if necessary.” Russian and Belarusian military leaders will “continue checking” joint force readiness, the defense minister, Viktor Khrenin, said, citing the “increase in military activity” near the Belarusian border and “the aggravation of the situation” in eastern Ukraine.
The announcement that Russian forces would not return to base as planned contradicted the country’s previous assertion that not a single Russian troop or piece of equipment would remain after the drill. Before the exercise began 10 days ago, Western military analysts warned that it could be cover for an attack force to invade Ukraine from the north and potentially encircle the capital Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky forcefully demanded stronger actions from world leaders on Saturday as the threat of full-scale invasion intensified amid increased shelling in the eastern separatist regions of his country. Zelensky also called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him and seek a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that Russia could stage an attack from Kyiv’s forces on the separatist-held territories to justify Moscow’s invasion. State Department spokesman Ned Price expressed skepticism about Russian reports of a car bomb in a separatist-controlled region in eastern Ukraine.
Here’s what to know
- Western diplomats made a last-ditch push for a peaceful resolution to tensions between Russia and Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing that diplomacy remained an option up until the possible moment when Moscow launches an attack.
- British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the BBC Sunday that the United Kingdom and the United States could take steps to prevent Russian companies from trading in British pounds and U.S. dollars if Putin invades Ukraine. Zelensky earlier said that possible Western sanctions against Russia should be made public now to deter Moscow.
- Putin oversaw a major military exercise of Russia’s nuclear forces, involving the launch of hypersonic missiles. The exercises are taking place as the United States asserts that Russia probably has massed as many as 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, or nearly double the 100,000 estimated in late January.
UNDERSTANDING THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS
Why some observers think Sunday will be the day Russia acts against Ukraine
Analysts looking at Russia’s menacing buildup of troops on Ukraine’s borders have long circled Feb. 20 as a day to watch for potential action. Sunday marks the confluence of several events and milestones that some think could — amid the feverish guessing game surrounding the standoff — hold deeper meaning. Here are some of the things happening:
- Joint military exercises with Russian and Belarusian forces conclude. The combined war games are the largest ever between the two allies and looked to many military observers more like the staging for an invasion than typical training maneuvers. Russia has said it would bring significant numbers of troops and equipment back from Belarus when the exercises were complete. The satellites will be watching closely to see to see if that happens.
- Kyiv residents will hold a number of public events to mark the eighth anniversary of the bloodiest day of their Maidan Revolution. On Feb. 20, 2014, riot police opened fire on protesters near Kyiv’s Maidan Square, a key site in the capital city since the country’s independence movement in 1990. About 50 people were killed, triggering events that toppled Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, and paving way for a pro-Western coalition government. Ukrainians call their uprising “The Revolution of Dignity” and view it as a victory over Yanukovych’s Moscow-aligned, corruption-riddled regime. But Putin has characterized it as a coup d’etat engineered by the West.
- The Beijing Olympics draw to a close. Speculation has been rampant that Russia would hold off on launching a major military escalation in Ukraine during the Games as a courtesy to its increasingly close ally China. The thinking goes, according to some, that Russian President Vladimir Putin wouldn’t want to distract from the Games staged by Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially after the two literally embraced during the Olympics’ Opening Ceremonies on Feb. 4.
- The Munich Security Conference wraps up in Germany. The so-called “Davos of Defense” is the biggest annual gathering of world leaders and military chiefs of the year and has been a hallmark of European security cooperation for almost 60 years. Putin, who used the event to rail against NATO expansion in 2007, boycotted this year’s meeting even as Russia’s looming threats to Ukraine dominated the agenda.
Harris responds to Zelensky’s criticism about silence on sanctions
Vice President Harris on Sunday expressed support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s critical address at the Munich Security Conference.
Harris reiterated President Biden’s assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to launch a military attack on Ukraine.
Asked to respond to Zelensky’s grievance that Washington has yet to announce the sanctions that Moscow will face if Putin invades Ukraine in the coming days, Harris said that “the purpose of the sanctions has always been and continues to be deterrence.”
“These are some of the greatest sanctions, if not the strongest, that we’ve ever issued,” Harris said, speaking to reporters at the conference, according to pool reports. “It is directed at institutions, in particular financial institutions, and individuals. And it will exact absolute harm for the Russian economy and their government.”
A reporter then followed up: If Putin has made up his mind as U.S. officials have assessed, is the sanctions threat still a deterrent?
“Absolutely,” Harris said, “especially because we still sincerely hope there is a diplomatic path out of this moment.”
Zelensky told the conference on Saturday that Ukraine would “protect our country with or without the support of our partners.”
Harris said she “appreciates and admires” Zelensky and “his desire to join NATO.”
“Let us recognize the position he’s in right now: His country is virtually surrounded by Russian troops,” Harris said. “He came here to make a very clear point that he does not stand alone. In fact, I told him in our meeting: ‘The United States stands with you.’ ”
Russia is ‘last country’ to speak of war, Kremlin says, as reports say its forces moving closer to Ukraine
MOSCOW — Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Sunday that Russia was the “last country” to speak of war, after United States and NATO allies warned Moscow of the devastating consequences of invading Ukraine.
Peskov’s comments on Russian state television come amid rising alarm that Russian forces could invade in coming days. Military analysts noted Russian equipment moving closer to Ukraine, and video surfaced of tanks moving on roads close to Ukrainian borders.
Peskov called on the United States and NATO to see reason and ask themselves why Russia would attack anyone, adding that Russia was “the last country in Europe that wishes to say the word war.”
Western leaders have warned that Russia appears to be preparing the ground by manufacturing a staged pretext to invade, based on Moscow’s claims that Ukraine forces have launched a major attack on Moscow-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, committing “genocide” and “crimes against humanity.”
No evidence has been provided, and Ukraine denies the attacks. Peskov said the West was fueling hysteria with claims of a Russian plan to attack Ukraine, saying Western predictions that an invasion would happen on certain dates deepened tensions between Russia and NATO.
He also took aim at Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin had every reason to believe the Kyiv leader would not implement a stalled 2015 agreement to bring peace to eastern Ukraine. Kyiv has called for revisions to the deal, arguing it would undermine sovereignty by giving Moscow-backed separatists autonomy and a veto over Ukraine’s pro-Western stance.
Russian media claims 2 civilians killed during sabotage attempt by Ukraine amid ‘false flag’ fears
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian state media on Sunday amplified a claim from Russian-backed separatist leaders that two civilians were killed by Ukrainian soldiers during a raid into the breakaway Luhansk region.
There was no evidence to corroborate the report. Ukrainian and U.S. officials have warned that Russia could stage attacks in the separatist territories to justify a Russian military invasion. State media’s push of the story follows a trend from the past three days in which Kremlin propaganda outlets are portraying Ukraine as the aggressor.
Ukrainian officials have denied separatist claims that they plan to launch an offensive on the separatist territories. Kyiv’s government troops are under orders not to open fire.
The Russian state-run Tass news service said two people lost their lives and a five houses were destroyed near the village of Pionerskoye during an incursion by Ukrainian forces Saturday. The self-styled Luhansk People’s Republic said the Ukrainians crossed the Donets River and tried to storm separatist position but were repelled by armed fighters.
Separatist leaders have also in recent days blamed Ukraine for sabotaging gas pipelines and setting off a car bomb in the rebel-held city of Donetsk. Ukrainian officials have consistently denied they carried out the alleged attacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had said a “genocide” is underway in Russian-controlled areas.
Ukraine accuses Russian-backed forces of 136 violations of peace agreement
By David L. Stern7:11 a.m.
LVIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s military accused Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine of violating a peace agreement that bans heavy weapons from areas near the front line.
In a statement posted on social media, Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation — the official name for government forces fighting in the country’s east — said “134 pieces of armament and materiel” had been recorded by Russian-backed actors in Ukraine breakaway states “in violation of the Minsk Agreements.” The statement said the weapons included howitzers, antiaircraft missile systems and tanks.
The Ukrainian military said in a separate statement that over the past day, “136 violations were recorded by the armed formations of the Russian Federation, 116 of which involved the use of weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.”
The Minsk agreements were signed in 2014 and 2015, and set out steps to be taken to de-escalate and reach a final peace deal to end the war in eastern Ukraine.
Russian officials maintain they are not involved in the conflict and only serve as mediators between Kyiv and the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, who control breakaway states of Ukraine. However, Ukrainian and western officials, and independent experts, say Moscow directs the separatists and supplies them with troops and arms.
“Recorded violations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces demonstrate carrying out of the intense combat training with the aim to create conditions for further escalation of situation on the confrontation line,” the statement by the Ukrainian armed forces said.
Russian forces stay in Belarus, fueling Ukraine invasion fears
MOSCOW — Belarus’s defense minister extended military exercises with Russian forces that were otherwise set to end Sunday, and announced a joint task force to “fight back if necessary.”
Russian and Belarusian military leaders will “continue checking” joint force readiness, the defense minister, Viktor Khrenin, said, citing the “increase in military activity” near the Belarusian border and “the aggravation of the situation” in eastern Ukraine.
The announcement that Russian forces would not return to base as planned contradicted the country’s previous assertion that not a single Russian troop or piece of equipment would remain after the drill. Before the exercise began 10 days ago, Western military analysts warned that it could be cover for an attack force to invade Ukraine from the north and potentially encircle the capital Kyiv.
Khrenin said the focus of the continued checks would be the same as the recently completed exercise: “to ensure an adequate response and de-escalation of military preparations of ill-wishers near our common borders.”
Just four days ago, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei told The Washington Post: “Not a single (Russian) serviceman, not a single piece of military equipment will remain in Belarus after these exercises.”
Even before the exercise began 10 days ago, Western military analysts warned that it could be cover for an attack force to invade Ukraine from the north and potentially encircle its capital, Kyiv.
According to NATO, there are some 30,000 Russian forces in Belarus as well as substantial military hardware including S-400 missiles, positioned in the south of the country. The first hint that Russian forces might not leave after the exercise came Saturday, when Belarusian general Alexander Volfovich told journalists that all the tasks of the exercise had been achieved but that “the exercise may continue. When and for how long will be decided by the head of the inspection.”
Khrenin said that neighboring states were “pumped up” with Western weapons and that Europe was purposely pushing toward war.
Video: For civilians in eastern Ukraine, war is already at their doorstep
After years of peace, villagers in Ukraine’s Donbas region are enduring a sharp increase in shelling from separatists and fear that a Russian invasion could be next. The escalation began in the village of Stanytsia Luhanska on Feb. 17, when artillery hit a local kindergarten.
1 million people in eastern Ukraine hit by water disruptions, Red Cross says
Water services to more than 1 million people have been disrupted by the escalating hostilities in eastern Ukraine, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said Saturday as it appealed to all sides to “critical civilian infrastructure.”
In a statement, the organization said it was “very concerned” about the situation in eastern Ukraine and that at least two major water pumping stations had been “rendered inoperable” by the fighting. Both stations are in the Donetsk region and serve residents on either side of the line of contact, the group said. Donetsk is a Russian-backed breakaway state in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
The disruption would likely impact “key essential services,” including hospitals, where operations could come to a complete stop, the organization warned. The committee noted that urgent repairs were needed but would take time to complete.
Florence Gillette, the ICRC’s head of delegation in Ukraine said that “civilian infrastructure providing essential services, and civilian personnel who operate, maintain and repair that infrastructure are protected under International Humanitarian Law.”
The organization said it would be working closely with the water company to attempt to restore supplies and that it would also consider emergency solutions, such as using water tankers to provide water to affected communities.
Over the past eight years, communities on either side of the line have regularly been impacted by disruptions to water, gas and power for days or even weeks, according to the ICRC.
British PM Johnson says evidence suggests Russia is planning biggest European war since WWII
Intelligence reports indicate that Russia is planning for a war unlike any experienced on the European continent since the end of World War II, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich.
“I’m afraid to say that the plan we’re seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945 just in terms of sheer scale,” Boris Johnson told the British Broadcasting Corp. in an interview that aired Sunday.
“You’re looking at not just an invasion through the east, through the Donbas, but according to the intelligence that we’re seeing, coming down from the north, down from Belarus and actually encircling Kyiv itself,” he said, adding: “I think people need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail.”
The remarks come as the United States is sounding its most dire warnings yet about the likelihood of a resumed Russian invasion of Ukraine. Johnson said President Biden had briefed him and other officials Saturday night.
The United States asserts that Russia has massed as many as 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, or nearly double the 100,000 estimated in late January. President Biden warned Friday that Russia could launch a military attack on Ukraine “in the coming days.”
U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss sounded similar warnings to the United States in Munich on Saturday, asserting that Ukraine’s “worst-case scenario” — a Russian invasion — “could happen as early as next week.”
Even people in separatist Ukraine question ‘evacuation’ crisis brewed by Russia-backed leaders
MOSCOW — The manufactured war scare mounted by Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine — using potentially 700,000 people as props — unraveled quickly.
Its centerpiece was a staged mass evacuation of women, children and elderly residents of breakaway regions, touching off long lines at ATMs and gas stations on Friday. Russian state TV went all out on the fake war, airing film of buses leaving, arrests of alleged spies and grainy video of “saboteurs,” playing off President Vladimir Putin’s claim on Tuesday that “genocide” was unfolding.
So far, however, the false-flag effort appeared neither particularly sophisticated — nor very convincing. Residents of the separatist republics were as skeptical as anyone about the claims of that Ukrainian forces were ready to attack and try to reclaim the territory in its eight-year war with Russian-backed separatist fighters.
The evacuation story — and separatists’ claims that Ukraine was planning to attack — sparked fears that Russia will use this as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Ukrainian officials deny that their nation has staged attacks, or any plans to do so. Instead, they report that separatist forces have stepped up shelling into Ukraine, possibly hoping to provoke Ukrainian retaliation.
Car bombing claims are more evidence of Russian disinformation, U.S. official says
State Department spokesman Ned Price expressed skepticism Saturday about Russian reports of a car bombing in a separatist-controlled region in eastern Ukraine, pointing to evidence of continued Russian disinformation campaigns to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine.
Russian-backed news agencies said the vehicle belonged to a top official in a separatist group. The vehicle was unoccupied at the time, and nobody was hurt in the explosion, Reuters reported.
“We are seeing more evidence of Russian disinformation being used as pretext for a potential Russian attack on Ukraine,” Price wrote on Twitter on Saturday. “Today, locals in Donetsk reported calm despite Russian claims of a car bomb.”
We are seeing more evidence of Russian disinformation being used as pretext for a potential Russian attack on Ukraine. Today, locals in Donetsk reported calm despite Russian claims of a car bomb. https://t.co/TpxzqDUJAo
— Ned Price (@StateDeptSpox) February 19, 2022
President Biden said Friday that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has “made the decision” to strike Ukraine, warning of Kremlin-orchestrated false-flag operations in the coming days as pretext for an attack. Speaking at a security conference in Munich on Saturday, Vice President Harris echoed those warnings.
“There is a playbook of Russian aggression,” Harris told the heads of state and government, foreign dignitaries and a large delegation from the United States. “And this playbook is too familiar for us all. Russia will plead ignorance and innocence. It will create a false pretext for invasion. And it will amass troops and firepower in plain sight.”
Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — who has previously expressed frustration that the grim predictions from U.S. military and intelligence officials about an imminent invasion are damaging Ukraine’s economy — on Saturday conceded that troops Putin had built up along the border were on the lookout for any exploitable provocation, and that “one shelling, one cannon fire, can lead to war.”
Zelensky rips the West for inaction amid increased shellings
MUNICH — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky forcefully demanded stronger actions from world leaders as the threat of full-scale attack by Russia intensifies amid increased shelling in the eastern separatist regions of his country.
“The security architecture of our world is brittle, it is obsolete,” Zelensky said on Saturday, during a defiant speech at a security conference in Munich. He accused governments of “egotism,” “arrogance” and “irresponsibility” as he urged Western leaders to publicly state their plans for sanctions on Russia, saying that after the war begins would be too late.
“Action is needed,” he insisted, adding that “this is not about war in Ukraine, this is about war in Europe.”
Zelensky’s rebuke of Kyiv’s allies comes as the United States is sounding its most dire warnings yet about the likelihood of a resumed Russian invasion of Ukraine, and as fresh shelling prompts new turmoil — and finger-pointing — in the country’s east.
Mekhennet and Hudson reported from Munich, and Demirjian and Nakashima reported from Washington.
Why might Russia want to invade Ukraine?
Will he or won’t he?
That’s the question the world is asking about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to invade Ukraine.
U.S. officials have said that a full-scale invasion by Russian troops is imminent. In a televised address Friday, President Biden said that he was “convinced” Putin had made the decision to invade and would attack in a matter of days.
Here’s what we know about why Russia might want to invade Ukraine.
